Weddings vs. Births

Our baby is due June 13th. June 13th is right in the middle of wedding season. In fact, I am DJ'ing many weddings near the due date including: May 25, June 1, June 8, June 15, and June 22. May 25th is today, and Shelley is shopping,  so labor seems unlikely (but not impossible). That leaves four weddings that could potentially overlap with Shelley's labor. The worse case scenario is if Shelley goes into labor on a Friday night or Saturday morning before a wedding. I was curious of the probability of this happening and since school is out and I already miss Statistics, I investigated it.

Births relative to due dates are approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of 10 days. Using excel, I found which dates correlated to the day before and the day of a wedding and converted these intervals to z-scores.

	x	z
26-May-13	-18	-1.8
27-May-13	-17	-1.7
28-May-13	-16	-1.6
29-May-13	-15	-1.5
30-May-13	-14	-1.4
31-May-13	-13	-1.3
1-Jun-13	-12	-1.2
2-Jun-13	-11	-1.1
3-Jun-13	-10	-1
4-Jun-13	-9	-0.9
5-Jun-13	-8	-0.8
6-Jun-13	-7	-0.7
7-Jun-13	-6	-0.6
8-Jun-13	-5	-0.5
9-Jun-13	-4	-0.4
10-Jun-13	-3	-0.3
11-Jun-13	-2	-0.2
12-Jun-13	-1	-0.1
13-Jun-13	0	0
14-Jun-13	1	0.1
15-Jun-13	2	0.2
16-Jun-13	3	0.3
17-Jun-13	4	0.4
18-Jun-13	5	0.5
19-Jun-13	6	0.6
20-Jun-13	7	0.7
21-Jun-13	8	0.8
22-Jun-13	9	0.9

Next, using R, I graphed the probability density function. The area under the entire curve is 1 and the the sum of the shaded regions corresponds to the probability the birth will happen during the intervals that correspond with the weddings.

Using R again, I calculated these probabilities.
> pnorm(-1.2,mean=0,sd=1)-pnorm(-1.3,mean=0,sd=1)
[1] 0.01826919
> pnorm(-.5,mean=0,sd=1)-pnorm(-.6,mean=0,sd=1)
[1] 0.03428442
> pnorm(.3,mean=0,sd=1)-pnorm(.2,mean=0,sd=1)
[1] 0.03865171
> pnorm(.9,mean=0,sd=1)-pnorm(.8,mean=0,sd=1)
[1] 0.02779527

It appears there is an approximately, 11.9% chance the baby will be born while I am working a wedding. This probability represents an uncommon but not rare event, but it is a conservative estimate. DJ'ing a wedding is really about an on-site 8 hour commitment and the probability calculates for a 48 hour interval for each wedding. This means there is less than a 11.9% chance the baby will be born while I am working a wedding. Additionally, even if the 11.9% is accurate, there is an 88.1% chance the baby will not be born during a wedding. 

Staying Active

Shelley and I headed down to the San Diego Zoo and to visit our Southern friends and family.

The butterfly exhibit was really neat and one landed on Shelley's arm.

I thought Shelley kind of looked like this tree and Shelley reluctantly posed by it. 

Then Shelley got ice cream and was all smiles again.

Panama Part 4: Panama City

coming soon

Panama Part 3: Tropical Island & Poison Dart Frogs

coming soon

Panama Part 2: The Cloud Forest

Our drive from Panama City to Santa Elena was around 320 miles and took all day. On the way we explored the beach shown in the previous post and stopped for food and photos along the way. With the flight and very long drive we were tired, but in the late afternoon we arrived in the small charming country town of Santa Elena. The map below shows our drive.

 

When we arrived, it was late and we were tired so we were not very picky about our room. After unpacking we started walking through town looking for a restaurant but were unsuccessful. We ate some cliff bars and dad and I went exploring into the dark searching for frogs. We found a fire road and I saw a medium sized animal climbing up a tree. The blurry photo below was the only one I got, but it seemed to be a type of opossum. At the end of the fire road, we did find a river that we returned to the following day.

 

After a good nights sleep, we were able to more properly explore Santa Elena. The town is beautiful with cute houses, cute dogs, and friendly people. The final photo is of the cabin we spent the next couple days in.

 

 

After checking in to our new room, we talked to the friendly owner and she recommended we walk to a nearby waterfall. It was windy, wet, and perfect! The waterfall was fantastic and on the muddy hike down we saw leaf-cutter ants, butterflies, and many flowers and exotic plants.

 

Later in the day we went for a swim in the river Dad and I had found the night before. There were lots of tiny fish in the river that I was able to photograph. That night, I headed to jungle with a local guide to locate and photograph frogs. In addition to the frogs, the guides were able to locate three small venomous snakes. Below is a collage of photos I took of the wildlife we found in Santa Elena as well as a couple of videos I shot underwater at the river and one of leaf cutter ants we found in the cloud forest.

Panama Part 1: Journey to Panama

My dad Carl, Uncle Bill, and I headed to Panama for a 10 day trip. This first photo shows dad and Bill doing final backpack checks at LAX.

We took the red-eye to direct to Panama City and landed around 8:00 AM.

After picking up our rental car and getting lost several times we headed to a the coast which was virtually featureless, except for the palm structure shown above (which provided shade for a half dozen dogs). It was insanely hot and dry. Dad and bill walked down to the beach to snap some photos.

As we headed to the highlands, the scenery changed quite a bit and began to resemble Steinbeck Country. Here is bill peaking out on an isolated country road while dad took photos of a horse.

Coming Soon - We're Having a Baby

Shelley and I are excited to announce we are having a baby boy in June! Here is our only ultrasound image that resembles a baby. We can't wait!