Meeting Heidi

Yesterday we were finally able to bring Cayman home and the first order of business was to introduce him to our loving wiener dog Heidi.

Baby Cayman First Photos

Today is the Day

On this day in history the Statue of Liberty arrived in New York (1885), the Republic of Iceland was founded (1944), OJ Simpson's slow speed chase took place (1994), and we welcomed Cayman Stiles Roberg to the world (2013).

The facts usually reported:

Cayman Stiles Roberg

Born at 22:08 - 6/17/13

8 lb 5.2 oz

20 inches long

After a long walk around our neighborhood, Shelley's contractions started and by 2:00 AM were strong and frequent enough to head to the hospital (after a quick stop at the La Crescenta Post Office to drop off some packages).

Shelley at the hospital and below our spacious delivery room with neato statistical graphs of contractions and mommy and baby heart rates.  

Baby Cayman 3 minutes and 51 seconds old. 

 8 pounds 5.2 oz.

 Name guesses and delivery room white board.

Baby Name Hints

Well, it appears the baby will be born very soon, so Shelley and I want to share some hints on the name...

1. It's a boy.

2. Name is shared with an animal.

3. Name is shared with a geographic location.

Email Kendall your name guess if you want.

Shelley Does a Handstand

We went to Erin's pool today to take some pregnancy photos. We are both ready to meet the little guy.

Weddings vs. Births

Our baby is due June 13th. June 13th is right in the middle of wedding season. In fact, I am DJ'ing many weddings near the due date including: May 25, June 1, June 8, June 15, and June 22. May 25th is today, and Shelley is shopping,  so labor seems unlikely (but not impossible). That leaves four weddings that could potentially overlap with Shelley's labor. The worse case scenario is if Shelley goes into labor on a Friday night or Saturday morning before a wedding. I was curious of the probability of this happening and since school is out and I already miss Statistics, I investigated it.

Births relative to due dates are approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of 10 days. Using excel, I found which dates correlated to the day before and the day of a wedding and converted these intervals to z-scores.

	x	z
26-May-13	-18	-1.8
27-May-13	-17	-1.7
28-May-13	-16	-1.6
29-May-13	-15	-1.5
30-May-13	-14	-1.4
31-May-13	-13	-1.3
1-Jun-13	-12	-1.2
2-Jun-13	-11	-1.1
3-Jun-13	-10	-1
4-Jun-13	-9	-0.9
5-Jun-13	-8	-0.8
6-Jun-13	-7	-0.7
7-Jun-13	-6	-0.6
8-Jun-13	-5	-0.5
9-Jun-13	-4	-0.4
10-Jun-13	-3	-0.3
11-Jun-13	-2	-0.2
12-Jun-13	-1	-0.1
13-Jun-13	0	0
14-Jun-13	1	0.1
15-Jun-13	2	0.2
16-Jun-13	3	0.3
17-Jun-13	4	0.4
18-Jun-13	5	0.5
19-Jun-13	6	0.6
20-Jun-13	7	0.7
21-Jun-13	8	0.8
22-Jun-13	9	0.9

Next, using R, I graphed the probability density function. The area under the entire curve is 1 and the the sum of the shaded regions corresponds to the probability the birth will happen during the intervals that correspond with the weddings.

Using R again, I calculated these probabilities.
> pnorm(-1.2,mean=0,sd=1)-pnorm(-1.3,mean=0,sd=1)
[1] 0.01826919
> pnorm(-.5,mean=0,sd=1)-pnorm(-.6,mean=0,sd=1)
[1] 0.03428442
> pnorm(.3,mean=0,sd=1)-pnorm(.2,mean=0,sd=1)
[1] 0.03865171
> pnorm(.9,mean=0,sd=1)-pnorm(.8,mean=0,sd=1)
[1] 0.02779527

It appears there is an approximately, 11.9% chance the baby will be born while I am working a wedding. This probability represents an uncommon but not rare event, but it is a conservative estimate. DJ'ing a wedding is really about an on-site 8 hour commitment and the probability calculates for a 48 hour interval for each wedding. This means there is less than a 11.9% chance the baby will be born while I am working a wedding. Additionally, even if the 11.9% is accurate, there is an 88.1% chance the baby will not be born during a wedding. 

Staying Active

Shelley and I headed down to the San Diego Zoo and to visit our Southern friends and family.

The butterfly exhibit was really neat and one landed on Shelley's arm.

I thought Shelley kind of looked like this tree and Shelley reluctantly posed by it. 

Then Shelley got ice cream and was all smiles again.